Earthquake prediction

Date: 14 Feb 1990

From: Bay of Plenty Earthquake (1987) Oral History Project

By: Fyfe, Judith Mildred de Visme, 1944-; Russell, Ronald William, 1939-

Reference: OHInt-0106-09

Description: Ron Russell was born in Raetihi on 3 November 1939. Talks about his family and describes growing up in Raetihi, Gisborne, Coromandel, Thames and Morrinsville. Talks about starting a watchmaker's apprenticeship but having to give that up. Recalls beginning work at the Morrinsville Dairy Factory, doing a Diploma in Dairy Technology at Massey University and working at the Dairy Research Institute before joining the Rangitaiki Plains Dairy Company. Notes that this is now Bay Milk Products. Describes being Site Manager and the most senior person on the site at the time of the earthquake. Describes the town of Edgecumbe and its `mill town' atmosphere. Comments on preparation for fire and floods but not earthquakes. Recalls earthquake weather and a swarm of earthquakes before the major earthquake. Describes being at work when it struck and the sight and noise of five huge stainless steel milk silos and other equipment falling. Comments that all the staff were thrown to the ground. Describes injuries in the factory and office, checking the whole building and dealing with chemical spillage. Commends Jim Goulden and others who isolated the boiling oil and turned off the chlorine gas. Describes trying to contact his milk tanker drivers throughout the countryside. Talks about the shock amongst his staff and how long people were affected. Comments on his family's reaction to the earthquake. Talks about the Edgecumbe bridge and the decision to declare it safe. Recalls the help of the Salvation Army and the Fire Service, the slow response of Civil Defence, insurance issues, rebuilding part of the factory and the long term effect on the community. Venue - Edgecumbe : 1990 Interviewer(s) - Fyfe, Judith Venue - At Mr Russell's home at Edgecumbe Arrangement: Tape numbers - OHC-002874; OHC-002875; OHC-002876 Quantity: 3 C60 cassette(s). 1 printed abstract(s). 3 Hours Duration. Finding Aids: Abstract Available - abstracting complete AB 550. Search dates: 1990

Date: 15 Feb 1990

From: Bay of Plenty Earthquake (1987) Oral History Project

By: Manson, Heugh Cecil Drummond, 1941-; Tukiri, Manu Kapua, 1954-

Reference: OHInt-0106-06

Description: Manu Tukiri was born in Whakatane on 29 September 1954. Describes growing up in Edgecumbe and spending some time as a child at the Kokohina marae. Describes not being able to speak Maori and experiencing conflict between the Maori and Pakeha worlds. Comments that Maori are more free to be themselves now but many are still deprived of their language. Comments on attitudes towards Pakeha at Te Teko. Recalls always sticking up for the underdog and sometimes fighting his cousins to defend Pakeha. Describes education at Edgecumbe and working at a number of jobs, including Caxton Pulp and Paper, before learning bone carving from Peter Langah. Talks about his business Kapua Crafts. Recalls tutoring bone carving at Waiariki Polytechnic at the time of the earthquake. Talks about previous smaller earthquakes and the Maori god of earthquakes, Ruaumoko. Describes taking his class outside and feeling that it was surreal and the world was ending. Recalls returning to Edgecumbe through slips on the road and his shock at seeing Edgecumbe. Describes how his father and niece were very upset and his father was reminded of World War II battlefields. Recalls the fear of the Matahina dam bursting. Describes returning to Whakatane, spending a number of days with his brother and not remembering anything else clearly until about May. Assumes this was shock. Recalls a big concert held at Edgecumbe to help towards reconstruction. Expresses frustration at the time taken to rebuild the new Edgecumbe. Venue - Edgecumbe : 1990 Interviewer(s) - Manson, Hugo Venue - At Manu Tukiri's home at Edgecumbe Arrangement: Tape numbers - OHC-002886; OHC-002887; OHC-002888 Quantity: 3 C60 cassette(s). 1 printed abstract(s). 2.30 Hours and minutes Duration. Finding Aids: Abstract Available - abstracting complete AB 554. Photograph of Manu Tukiri in February 1990 Search dates: 1990

Date: 2011

From: Smith, Ashley W, 1948- :[Digital cartoons published in the Shipping Gazette, MG Business, or Presto]

Reference: DCDL-0017309

Description: Text at the top of the cartoon reads 'News - A "Moon man non-event lunch" will be held above Christchurch to defy quake predictions for that day'. In tea rooms on hills above Christchurch a group of people enjoy lunch as they defy precaution against a predicted earthquake. They order a 'pot o' tea', 'pie & chips', 'sandwich & coke' and a 'shake & roll'; above in a black and thunderous cloud God thinks he heard someone request a shake & a roll'. Context - After the two big earthquakes in Christchurch on 4 September 2010 and 22 February 2011, the so-called Moon Man Ken Ring is backing away from his prediction that Christchurch will be whacked by a huge earthquake today (20 March 2011). His claims have terrified Cantabrians and led to people fleeing Christchurch. M.P. Nick Smith and the Skeptics Society are planning a lunch in one of Christchurch's highest, oldest, stone buildings - on the day that "moon man" Ken Ring says the city will be hit by another devastating earthquake ; the lunch will be held at noon on March 20 at the Sign of the Kiwi, on the top of the Port Hills - which Smith said was the closest building to the epicentre of the February 22 quake. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Date: 2011

From: Brockie, Robert Ellison, 1932- :Digital caricatures and cartoons

Reference: DCDL-0017326

Description: The cartoon shows members of the 'Japan Seismic Institute studying an earthquake graph; one of them says 'Where was that Kiwi moonman when we wanted him?' Depicted also is thew 'moonman' Ken Ring as a wizard studying an astrological chart. Behind them all Japan is depicted as a devastated wasteland. Context - the Japanese earthquake and tsunami of 4th March 2011 and the present threat of a nuclear catastrophe. Also the so-called Moon Man, astrologer Ken Ring, who predicted that Christchurch would be hit by a huge earthquake today (20 March 2011). His claims have terrified Cantabrians and led to people fleeing Christchurch. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Date: 2011

From: Nisbet, Alastair, 1958- :Digital cartoons

Reference: DCDL-0016945

Description: The title is 'Main faultline to be probed'. The cartoon shows an image of Maori Party MP Hone Harawira with two small firemen on his shoulder squirting water into one ear so that it explodes out of the other. One of the firemen says 'I tell ya now the next quake will be an eight point four!' Context - The problem of criticism of his own party by maverick Maori Party MP Hone Harawira. Harawira says that many Maori believe the party has not been able to be an independent voice because of its government partnership and so Mr Harawira is calling for his party to consider its options at the next election. Mr Harawira said that the problem was exacerbated because when the Maori Party was going into coalition with National, the whole world was going into recession and when this happens their choice (National) is to help the rich guy, help the big business, on the basis that they will stay here and keep their business here and everybody will get a job He said the Maori Party needed to get back to supporting basic social policies to help the poor. There is a reference to the Christchurch earthquake of 4 September 2010 and the many strange ways of trying to predict the earthquakes and aftershocks that Christchurch has been experiencing.. (Stuff 18 January 2011) Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Date: 2011

From: Nisbet, Alastair, 1958- :Digital cartoons

Reference: DCDL-0016946

Description: The title is 'The next stage in earthquake prediction?... Six images show 'aromatherapists', auctioneers', chiropractors', fortune tellers', a 'sixth sense' and 'psychics'. Context - reference to all the unscientific ways of trying to predict earthquakes particularly dear to the hearts of Christchurch people who are enduring numerous aftershocks following the earthquake of 4th September 2010. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Date: 2011

From: Nisbet, Alastair, 1958- :Digital cartoons

Reference: DCDL-0017415

Description: In the first seven of eight frames astrologer Ken Moon predicts a 'black day ahead', a 'day of great shaking' and 'terror' and 'children crying' and 'people fleeing' and 'a day in May'. In the last frame people realize that he has seen, not an earthquake, but the budget. Context - After the two big earthquakes in Christchurch on 4 September 2010 and 22 February 2011, the so-called Moon Man, Ken Ring, backed away from his prediction that Christchurch would be whacked by a huge earthquake on the 20th of March 2011. His claims terrified Cantabrians and led to people fleeing Christchurch. The 2011 budget will be announced in May and predictions are that it will be a cost-cutting one because of New Zealand's debt, partially caused by the Christchurch earthquakes. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Date: Sept-Oct 2010

By: Whitehead, Neil Evan, 1943-

Reference: MSDL-1256

Description: A preliminary report with findings from an internet survey conducted in the Christchurch region in the days following the Darfield earthquake. Includes eyewitness accounts of alleged earthquake precursors, such as earthquake lights, atmospheric changes, human responses and erratic animal behaviour. Quantity: 1 Electronic document(s). Provenance: The donor provided the following information: In connection with the M7.1 earthquake at Darfield, September 4th, we collected many accounts of alleged precursors via an internet survey. The resulting report is attached. It is an interesting historical document and you might consider adding it to the National LIbrary collection in some form. About 100 copies have been distributed to those who asked for it. There is no official printed form, it is digital only. The report forms the basis of a scientific paper in preparation but it is already apparent that much of the quoted accounts from survey respondents will have to be left out. The report itself will therefore remain a useful document. We plan to submit the scientific paper to Natural Hazards and Earth Science Systems in due course. The report and paper confirm that some real precursors do exist, but cannot be more specific about causes.

Date: 2011

From: Nisbet, Alastair, 1958- :Digital cartoons

Reference: DCDL-0017367

Description: Two people peer out from underneath a table waiting for an earthquake predicted by astrologer Ken Ring. One of them says 'Load of rubbish that Ken Ring prediction eh?' and the other agrees. Context - After the two big earthquakes in Christchurch on 4 September 2010 and 22 February 2011, the so-called Moon Man, Ken Ring, is backing away from his prediction that Christchurch will be whacked by a huge earthquake on the 20th of March 2011. His claims terrified Cantabrians and led to people fleeing Christchurch. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Date: 2013

From: Various artists :[Entries in the Young Cartoonist Award. 2013]

By: Mathis, Cory, 1985-

Reference: DCDL-0025731

Description: Shows a young man and woman standing on a porch preparing their earthquake survival kit and asking if there's "Anything else we've forgotten?" while the woman looks up towards a precarious cityscape featuring a sharp slope, pole houses and cantilevered parking spaces. Wider context refers to calls for residents of Wellington to have an adequate disaster response plan and kit ready in the event of a major earthquake. The cartoonist describes the work as: "A slightly ironic look at my current living situation here in Wellington. Being surrounded in precarious carports [and] creaking hillside villas makes you wonder just how well one can prepare for the big one." Cory Mathis was the winner of the New Zealand Cartoon Archive and Listener Young Cartoonist Award in 2013. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Date: 2012

From: Nisbet, Alastair, 1958- :Digital cartoons

By: Press (Christchurch, N.Z.)

Reference: DCDL-0021341

Description: Shows a dragon labelled Alpine Fault asleep beneath mountains while mountaineers traverse the range. Context: scientific study shows South Island alpine fault could be 200 years away from generating its next earthquake of magnitude 8.0 (Stuff 3 April 2012) Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Date: 2012

From: Hawkey, Allan Charles, 1941- :[Digital cartoons published in the Waikato Times].

By: Waikato Times (Newspaper)

Reference: DCDL-0023247

Description: Shows a group of Italian seismologists in a prison cell. Context: An Italian court convicted seven scientists and experts of manslaughter on Monday for failing to adequately warn citizens before an earthquake struck L'Aquila in central Italy in 2009, killing more than 300 people. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Date: 2012

From: Nisbet, Alastair, 1958- :Digital cartoons

By: Press (Christchurch, N.Z.)

Reference: DCDL-0019998

Description: Scientists stand before a model that will predict earthquakes. The model is a large arm attached to wires and switches with a thumb that flicks coins '"Heads" we have big quake at five-o-clock... "tails" we don't'. Context: short term predictions (hours to days) are in general unlikely to be possible, at present. Relates to the Christchurch earthquakes which experts have said could go on for years. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Date: 2010

From: Ekers, Paul, 1961-:[Digital cartoons published in the New Zealand Herald and other publications]

Reference: DCDL-0029330

Description: Black and white cartoon shows an overturned vehicle in a parking space. A parking warden notes that the parking meter has expired and issues a ticket. Text at the top of the cartoon reads, 'If the big one hit Wellington'. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).